Relationships

JADE ANALYSIS

Every relationship is a first-class object: source, target, geography, season, lag, strength through time, drift, skill, confidence, and evidence.

ENSO / ONI → Townsville wet-season rainfall

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: Moderate
Recent: Moderate
Historical r: -0.24
Recent r: -0.21
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: High
Structural break: Not established

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Rolling relationship

Li Index — provisional Λ

0.73Strongly coherent

0.45

0.94

0.72

0.95

What is Li?

SOI → Townsville wet-season rainfall

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: Moderate
Recent: Moderate
Historical r: +0.37
Recent r: +0.33
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: High
Structural break: Not established

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Rolling relationship

Li Index — provisional Λ

0.84Strongly coherent

0.65

0.93

0.86

0.95

What is Li?

IOD → Townsville wet-season rainfall

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: Weak
Recent: Weak
Historical r: -0.11
Recent r: -0.18
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: Medium
Structural break: Not established

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Rolling relationship

Li Index — provisional Λ

0.40Partial coherence

0.07

0.84

0.60

0.70

What is Li?

Forecast Tmax → Terrey Hills Tmax

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: —
Recent: MAE 0.7438 °C
Historical r: —
Recent r: —
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: Medium
Structural break: Not established

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Rolling relationship

No rolling series

Li Index — provisional Λ

0.78Strongly coherent

0.70

0.75

0.70

1.00

What is Li?

Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: —
Recent: Brier 0.1875
Historical r: —
Recent r: —
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: Medium
Structural break: Not established

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Rolling relationship

No rolling series

Li Index — provisional Λ

0.47Coherent

0.25

0.75

0.25

1.00

What is Li?