Regime Lab · Townsville
A tropical investigation, not a predetermined story. The long calendar-year record is the evidence object. The 10–11 year cycle is a test that is allowed to fail.
Townsville Annual Rainfall Anomaly
Townsville Aero — GHCN ASN00032040 / BOM 032040 · 1941–2025 · n=85 complete years · record mean 1,156.1 mm
Years above zero were wetter than Townsville Aero's full-record mean; years below zero were drier. Apparent multi-year clusters may be visible, but periodicity is tested on the wet-season record in TSV-001 and is not assumed here.
2026 YTD 1,174.8 mm (218 days) — Year-to-date only. Not a calendar-year total and not plotted on the annual line.
Test 10–11 year cycle
The original hypothesis is a roughly decadal wet/dry recurrence at Townsville. The test is allowed to fail. This run is on the calendar-year anomaly series. TSV-001 is the published wet-season periodogram.
Wet-season totals — the relationship object for TSV-001/002
Nov–Apr, Townsville Aero. Latest 2025/26: 1,566.6 mm. Not the same object as the calendar-year anomaly above.
Wet/Dry Pattern Persistence
Does Townsville show statistically meaningful recurring wet/dry regimes, and if so, have their characteristics changed?
EXPLORATORY SIGNAL
ENSO/SOI Relationship Drift
Has the predictive relationship between ENSO/SOI and Townsville rainfall changed through time?
VALIDATED RELATIONSHIP
Rainfall Provenance Drift
Has the synoptic pathway associated with major Townsville rainfall events changed?
HYPOTHESIS / RESEARCH