Observatory

JADE ANALYSIS

What we think we know, how reliable that knowledge is, and what appears to be changing. Every conclusion opens its evidence.

System state

Townsville wet season

1,566.6 mm

2025/26 · median of the record is 941 mm

Previous season 2024/25 was 3,070.8 mm — the wettest season in this extract. Recency is not significance.

SOI Sep–Feb: +1.33
ONI SON–DJF: -0.54

System state

Northern Beaches forecast audit

0.74 °C

MAE, Open-Meteo forecast Tmax versus Terrey Hills AWS

Rain-probability Brier score 0.188. This is not a Bureau of Meteorology official-forecast audit.

Forecast reliability →

How reliable

SOI relationship

STABLE RELATIONSHIP

Historical Moderate (+0.37) · recent Moderate (+0.33). Confidence High.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED

What has changed?

Ranked by evidence of meaningful change

Drift is a gradual change in strength or skill. A structural break is a supported discontinuity. A regime shift is not claimed from a threshold. Stable relationships stay visible.

Relationship	Historical	Recent	Δ r	Direction	Break	Li Index	Confidence
IOD → Townsville wet-season rainfall	Weak	Weak	-0.08	NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED	Not established	0.40 Partial coherence	Medium
SOI → Townsville wet-season rainfall	Moderate	Moderate	-0.04	NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED	Not established	0.84 Strongly coherent	High
ENSO / ONI → Townsville wet-season rainfall	Moderate	Moderate	+0.03	NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED	Not established	0.73 Strongly coherent	High
Forecast Tmax → Terrey Hills Tmax	—	MAE 0.7438 °C	—	NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED	Not established	0.78 Strongly coherent	Medium
Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence	—	Brier 0.1875	—	NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED	Not established	0.47 Coherent	Medium

Relationships to watch

Primary objects

ENSO / ONI → Townsville wet-season rainfall

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: Moderate
Recent: Moderate
Historical r: -0.24
Recent r: -0.21
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: High
Structural break: Not established

Li Index Λ

0.73Strongly coherent

SOI → Townsville wet-season rainfall

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: Moderate
Recent: Moderate
Historical r: +0.37
Recent r: +0.33
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: High
Structural break: Not established

Li Index Λ

0.84Strongly coherent

Forecast Tmax → Terrey Hills Tmax

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: —
Recent: MAE 0.7438 °C
Historical r: —
Recent r: —
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: Medium
Structural break: Not established

Li Index Λ

0.78Strongly coherent

Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence

JADE ANALYSIS

Historical: —
Recent: Brier 0.1875
Historical r: —
Recent r: —
Direction: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
Confidence: Medium
Structural break: Not established

Historical analogue confidence

Multivariate, not a single year

Closest seasons to 2026 on ONI, SOI, IOD and antecedent rainfall: 2001, 1975, 1999, 1954. Usefulness index 0.3501. No universal percentage is published.

Analogue record →

Geographic context

Two configurations of one engine

Townsville — tropical rainfall, ENSO/SOI, wet/dry persistence.
Sydney Northern Beaches — forecast versus observation.
Singapore — reserved. Not built in v0.1.

Forecast reliability

Forecast → observation

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED. Everyday and operational confidence in a maximum-temperature forecast under conditions like these.

Open the audit →

Evidence & methodology

Townsville wet-season rainfall, 1942–2026

Highlighted: 2019, 2025, 2026 — comparison periods requested in the brief, not selected for significance. Source: GHCN-Daily Townsville Aero.

Methods, uncertainty, and what we never claim →