ENSO / ONI → Townsville wet-season rainfall
JADE ANALYSIS- Historical
- Moderate
- Recent
- Moderate
- Historical r
- -0.24
- Recent r
- -0.21
- Direction
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
- Confidence
- High
- Structural break
- Not established
Rolling relationship
Observatory
JADE ANALYSISWhat we think we know, how reliable that knowledge is, and what appears to be changing. Every conclusion opens its evidence.
System state
Townsville wet season
1,566.6 mm
2025/26 · median of the record is 941 mm
Previous season 2024/25 was 3,070.8 mm — the wettest season in this extract. Recency is not significance.
- SOI Sep–Feb
- +1.33
- ONI SON–DJF
- -0.54
System state
Northern Beaches forecast audit
0.74 °C
MAE, Open-Meteo forecast Tmax versus Terrey Hills AWS
Rain-probability Brier score 0.188. This is not a Bureau of Meteorology official-forecast audit.
Forecast reliability →How reliable
SOI relationship
STABLE RELATIONSHIP
Historical Moderate (+0.37) · recent Moderate (+0.33). Confidence High.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
What has changed?
Ranked by evidence of meaningful change
Drift is a gradual change in strength or skill. A structural break is a supported discontinuity. A regime shift is not claimed from a threshold. Stable relationships stay visible.
| Relationship | Historical | Recent | Δ r | Direction | Break | Li (prov.) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOD → Townsville wet-season rainfall | Weak | Weak | -0.08 | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED | Not established | 0.40 Partial coherence | Medium |
| SOI → Townsville wet-season rainfall | Moderate | Moderate | -0.04 | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED | Not established | 0.84 Strongly coherent | High |
| ENSO / ONI → Townsville wet-season rainfall | Moderate | Moderate | +0.03 | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED | Not established | 0.73 Strongly coherent | High |
| Forecast Tmax → Terrey Hills Tmax | — | MAE 0.7438 °C | — | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED | Not established | 0.78 Strongly coherent | Medium |
| Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence | — | Brier 0.1875 | — | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED | Not established | 0.47 Coherent | Medium |
Relationships to watch
Primary objects
SOI → Townsville wet-season rainfall
JADE ANALYSIS- Historical
- Moderate
- Recent
- Moderate
- Historical r
- +0.37
- Recent r
- +0.33
- Direction
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
- Confidence
- High
- Structural break
- Not established
Rolling relationship
Forecast Tmax → Terrey Hills Tmax
JADE ANALYSIS- Historical
- —
- Recent
- MAE 0.7438 °C
- Historical r
- —
- Recent r
- —
- Direction
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
- Confidence
- Medium
- Structural break
- Not established
Rolling relationship
No rolling series
Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence
JADE ANALYSIS- Historical
- —
- Recent
- Brier 0.1875
- Historical r
- —
- Recent r
- —
- Direction
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED
- Confidence
- Medium
- Structural break
- Not established
Rolling relationship
No rolling series
Historical analogue confidence
Multivariate, not a single year
Closest seasons to 2026 on ONI, SOI, IOD and antecedent rainfall: 2001, 1975, 1999, 1954. Usefulness index 0.3501. No universal percentage is published.
Analogue record →Geographic context
Two configurations of one engine
- Townsville — tropical rainfall, ENSO/SOI, wet/dry persistence.
- Sydney Northern Beaches — forecast versus observation.
- Singapore — reserved. Not built in v0.1.
Forecast reliability
Forecast → observation
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETECTED. Everyday and operational confidence in a maximum-temperature forecast under conditions like these.
Open the audit →Evidence & methodology
Townsville wet-season rainfall, 1942–2026
Highlighted: 2019, 2025, 2026 — comparison periods requested in the brief, not selected for significance. Source: GHCN-Daily Townsville Aero.
Methods, uncertainty, and what we never claim →