Analogue Lab
JADE ANALYSISSimilar signal does not mean identical system. History is evidence. Analogy is a hypothesis. Similarity must be measured.
1997 ↔ 2026
Same signal. Different system.
The equatorial Pacific may look familiar, but JADE tests whether the wider ocean and atmospheric state also matches. NOAA OISST v2.1 only. One baseline. One grid.
OISST analogue
Loading OISST fields…
Difference mode is comparison anomaly minus reference anomaly on the same 1971–2000 NOAA Native baseline. Not a long-term temperature trend. JADE Normalised 1991–2020 is not enabled until that climatology is built.
State components
Dimensions not in the extract stay visible as insufficient evidence. No numeric similarity score.
Analogue decomposition
Whole-system view. Each dimension is judged separately. Compared 8: 0 strong, 2 moderate, 4 weak, 2 materially different. 6 analysis pending.
| Dimension | Status | 1997 | 2026 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equatorial Pacific (ONI) | Moderate match | 1.79 | 1.39 | -0.4 |
| SOI | Materially different | -2.4 | -4 | -1.6 |
| Indian Ocean (DMI) | Weak match | 0.633 | 0.146 | -0.487 |
| Australian coastal waters | Weak match | -0.437 | 0.115 | 0.552 |
| Niño 3.4 / equatorial Pacific | Moderate match | 1.891 | 2.655 | 0.764 |
| Western tropical Pacific | Weak match | -0.656 | -0.063 | 0.593 |
| Coral Sea | Weak match | -0.904 | -0.176 | 0.728 |
| Tropical Indian Ocean | Materially different | -0.113 | 0.856 | 0.969 |
| MJO | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
| Atmospheric moisture | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
| Sea-level pressure | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
| Soil moisture | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
| Antecedent rainfall | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
| Background atmospheric temperature | INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | — | — | — |
- Equatorial Pacific (ONI). Reference 1.79 °C; comparison 1.39 °C; Δ -0.4.
- SOI. Reference -2.4 index; comparison -4.0 index; Δ -1.6.
- Indian Ocean (DMI). Reference 0.633 °C; comparison 0.146 °C; Δ -0.487.
- Australian coastal waters. Reference -0.437 °C; comparison 0.115 °C; Δ 0.552. 2026 file is PRELIMINARY.
- Niño 3.4 / equatorial Pacific. Reference 1.891 °C; comparison 2.655 °C; Δ 0.764. 2026 file is PRELIMINARY.
- Western tropical Pacific. Reference -0.656 °C; comparison -0.063 °C; Δ 0.593. 2026 file is PRELIMINARY.
- Coral Sea. Reference -0.904 °C; comparison -0.176 °C; Δ 0.728. 2026 file is PRELIMINARY.
- Tropical Indian Ocean. Reference -0.113 °C; comparison 0.856 °C; Δ 0.969. 2026 file is PRELIMINARY.