Forecast rain probability → rain occurrence
JADE ANALYSISOpen-Meteo archived precipitation probability → Terrey Hills AWS rain occurrence (≥0.2 mm). Sydney Northern Beaches / Terrey Hills.
Identity
- Relationship id
- fc-rain-nb
- Season / context
- Daily, 2022–2026
- Lag
- same-day archived forecast
- Period
- 2022–2026
- n
- 825
- Metric
- Brier score
- Full-period r
- — p=—
- Historical r
- —
- Recent r
- —
- Stability
- NOT TESTED FOR BREAK
- Structural break
- Not established
- Updated
- 2026-08-18T12:42:11Z
Li Index
Forecast→observation treated as a relationship. S and K are the same term: remaining skill versus a stated poor-skill ceiling (MAE 2.5 °C or Brier 0.25).
Λ = (S · P · K · E)^(1/4). If K is missing, three-term geometric mean.
- S — How organised the association is (|r| / 0.60, capped at 1).
- P — How much of that organisation remains through time.
- K — Out-of-sample usefulness versus a naïve climatology.
- E — How much the sample and robustness justify trust in S, P and K.
The paper treats conservation as the structuring of flows that preserve biospheric coherence, and names Confucian Lǐ as principled pattern. The Li Index is that idea made operational for one environmental relationship: remaining usable order. Grier, N. (2025). Conservation is Coherence: Introducing the Negawatt Philosophy of Lawful Design. EarthArXiv preprint.
- · Not a physical entropy measurement.
- · Not a regime-shift detector.
- · Not a 0–100 product score. Components are always shown.
Uncertainty
Bootstrap 95% CI — to —
Confidence is an evidence judgement, not effect size.
Predictive skill
Brier score 0.1875 (n=825).
Decision relevance
Whether a low rain probability is actually dry on the Northern Beaches.
Evidence drawer
Methods
Datasets
- · Open-Meteo Historical Forecast API
- · GHCN-Daily ASN00066059
Counter-evidence
What would weaken this
Open-Meteo is not the Bureau of Meteorology official forecast. Skill here is a forecast-as-relationship demonstration, not a BOM audit. Terrey Hills AWS is inland and elevated (~199 m); coastal Freshwater/Manly can differ, especially in sea-breeze and orographic rain. ERA5-based archive observations are not independent of some NWP systems. Isolated misses are not treated as evidence that forecasting has degraded.