TSV-003 · Rainfall Provenance Drift
HYPOTHESISHas the synoptic pathway associated with major Townsville rainfall events changed?
HYPOTHESIS / RESEARCH · confidence Insufficient evidence
Townsville major-rainfall provenance may have shifted among northern-tropical, Coral Sea, eastern maritime, western/inland and mixed pathways. This is a hypothesis, not a finding.
What exists now
141
days ≥ 100 mm at Townsville Aero
87
non-overlapping 3-day totals ≥ 200 mm
Threshold catalogue only. Classification pipeline is not implemented in v0.1.
Candidate classes — unused
- · northern tropical
- · north-eastern / Coral Sea
- · eastern maritime
- · western / inland
- · north-western
- · mixed
Pathway and moisture source are different questions. Neither is classified in v0.1.
Evidence
- · 141 calendar days with ≥100 mm at Townsville Aero are catalogued from the GHCN daily series.
- · 87 non-overlapping 3-day totals ≥200 mm are catalogued.
- · No reproducible synoptic or moisture-source classification has been validated, so no decade-to-decade provenance trend is reported as fact.
Counter-evidence
- · Event counts can rise or fall with observing practice, cyclone classification and a single landfalling system.
- · Pathway and moisture source are different questions and must not be collapsed.
What would falsify the hypothesis
- · No statistically meaningful change in classified event pathways across eras.
- · Apparent shift disappears under reasonable event thresholds.
- · Shift explained by observational or reanalysis artefacts.
- · Moisture-source analysis contradicts the pathway interpretation.
- · Result is not robust across classification methods.
Recent ≥100 mm days — catalogue only
| Date | Rainfall |
|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | 284 mm |
| 2025-02-02 | 260.6 mm |
| 2025-02-03 | 165.2 mm |
| 2025-02-07 | 101.2 mm |
| 2025-03-19 | 301.4 mm |
| 2025-03-20 | 110.6 mm |
| 2025-03-24 | 119.8 mm |
| 2025-03-26 | 115 mm |
| 2025-12-30 | 142.2 mm |
| 2026-01-01 | 223 mm |
| 2026-01-05 | 129.8 mm |
| 2026-01-27 | 119.8 mm |